Confidence tier — how alerts are prioritized
💡
Every qualifying cluster gets sent — nothing is filtered out by a score. Instead of a pass/fail threshold, each alert carries a confidence tier based on one thing that actually predicted outcomes in backtesting: how many different insiders are buying. More insiders buying independently in the same short window is a stronger signal than one insider buying alone.
BUY — 2 insiders
The minimum bar to alert at all. Two different insiders, same short window.
STRONG BUY — 3 insiders
A third independent buyer joining the same cluster — meaningfully rarer.
MUST BUY — 4+ insiders
The strongest, least common tier — four or more insiders converging on the same stock.

A single insider buying alone never triggers an alert — the pipeline requires at least two independent buyers before anything is sent. The tier is shown for context on every alert; it doesn't gate whether you receive it.

Signal calendar — when insiders can (and can't) buy
🔒
The pre-earnings blackout rule: executives and directors enter a silence period roughly 2-3 weeks before their fiscal quarter ends, lasting until 1-2 days after earnings are released — often 6 to 9 weeks total. Four quarters a year means four high-activity zones and four near-desert zones — perfectly predictable, and it applies just as much to penny stocks as to any other public company.
Legend Excellent Good Average Weak
January
Average
Early January still frozen (Q4 blackout). Window opens around the 15th with the first annual results.
February
Excellent
Best month of the year. Q4 blackouts lifted, Q1 blackout not yet started. Insider activity at its peak.
March
Good → declining
Good window early in the month. Q1 blackout starts around the 15th for early reporters.
April
Weak
Q1 blackout widespread. Near-desert until mid-month when the first Q1 results begin to appear.
May
Good
Q1 earnings in bulk. Window open from the 15th for most companies, sustained activity.
June
Good → weak
Good window until the 15th. Q2 blackout starts mid-month — activity drops quickly toward the end.
July
Weak → recovering
Q2 blackout still active for most companies early in the month. Big banks report first, around the 14th-15th — broader recovery builds gradually through the rest of the month.
August
Excellent
Second best month. Q2 earnings done, Q3 blackout not yet started. High cluster density.
September
Good → declining
Active window early in the month. Q3 blackout sets in around the 15th for early reporters.
October
Weak
Q3 blackout widespread. Seasonal trough — few new transactions until mid-month.
November
Good
Q3 earnings in bulk, blackouts lifted. Sustained activity until mid-December.
December
Good → weak
Good window until the 15th. Q4 blackout + holiday slowdown weigh on the end of the month.

Blackout dates vary by company, and small caps in particular can be less consistent about publishing them than large-caps. PennySignal monitors in real time and adapts to actual SEC filing flow rather than assuming any fixed calendar.

Insider signal — what's inside every alert
Number of insiders
Unique buyers

How many different company insiders (executives, directors, or other Section 16 filers) bought shares within the same short detection window. This single number drives the confidence tier above.

3 buyers → STRONG BUY tier
Total amount
Combined dollar value

The combined dollar value of every qualifying purchase in the cluster. A larger total, especially relative to the company's size, suggests higher conviction from the people buying.

$187K combined across 3 insiders
Roles
Insider titles

The job titles of the insiders involved (CEO, CFO, Director, 10% owner, etc.), pulled directly from their SEC filing. A CEO and CFO buying together carries different weight than two outside directors.

Latest signal
Days since the newest purchase

How recently the most recent qualifying purchase in the cluster happened. A tighter, more recent window is a fresher — and generally stronger — signal than one stitched together from purchases weeks apart.

Technical analysis — the stock's own trading behavior
RSI
Relative Strength Index

RSI measures how fast and in which direction a stock's price has recently moved. It ranges from 0 to 100.

An RSI below 30 means the stock has been sold off aggressively — it's considered "oversold" and could bounce. An RSI above 70 means it has risen a lot — it's "overbought" and could correct. Penny stocks routinely swing to more extreme RSI values than large-caps; treat it as one data point, not a trigger on its own.

RSI at 34.2 → oversold zone, potential bounce
vs SMA 200d
Simple Moving Average, 200 days

The 200-day moving average is simply the average closing price over the last 200 trading days. It smooths out day-to-day noise to reveal the underlying trend.

When the current price sits below the 200-day average, the stock has pulled back from its longer trend — often read as a potential entry point, especially when insiders are buying at the same time.

Price -8.3% vs SMA 200d → potential bottom
Volume ratio
5-day vs 30-day average

Compares trading volume over the last 5 days to the 30-day average. A ratio of 1.0× is normal activity.

A ratio above 1.5× signals unusual interest in the stock — often tied to news, accumulation, or something building. Illiquid penny names can spike this ratio on very little absolute volume, so also check the actual share count before reading too much into it.

Volume 1.8× → 80% above normal activity
Financial health — the company's own numbers
P/E ratio
Price-to-Earnings

How much investors are paying for each dollar of the company's profit. A P/E of 18 means you're paying $18 for every $1 of annual earnings.

Shows as N/A for unprofitable companies — very common among penny stocks, especially in biotech and early-stage names with no earnings yet. That's a structural gap, not a red flag by itself.

P/E of 18.2× → moderate valuation, if profitable at all
Free Cash Flow
FCF

The real cash a company generates after paying all its operating and investment expenses — one of the most reliable signs of financial health, and one that's hard to fake with accounting choices.

A positive FCF means the company funds itself. A negative FCF means it's burning cash — for a penny stock, that often means it depends on dilutive share issuance to survive, worth checking directly.

Revenue Growth (YoY)
Year-over-year

How the company's sales changed compared to the same period last year. Measures whether the business is actually expanding.

Growth above 10% is generally considered solid. Negative growth means sales are shrinking — a warning sign.

+12.4% YoY → sales grew 12.4% in a year
Debt / Equity
Leverage ratio

Compares total debt to shareholder equity — how leveraged the company is relative to what shareholders actually own.

A ratio below 0.5 means low debt, a solid balance sheet. A ratio above 2 means heavy leverage — vulnerable if rates rise or business slows, a real risk for cash-strapped penny names.

Profit Margin
Net margin

The share of every dollar of sales that becomes net profit. A 20% margin means the company keeps $20 of profit for every $100 of revenue.

Margins vary a lot by sector — treat this next to Revenue Growth and FCF rather than in isolation.

Margin of 8.6% → modest, worth checking against sector peers
ROE
Return on Equity

How much profit the company generates for every dollar shareholders have invested. An ROE of 20% means $20 of profit for every $100 of equity.

An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong — a sign management is using shareholder capital efficiently.

Sentiment & analysts — what others think
Analyst Consensus
Buy %

The percentage of professional analysts covering the stock who recommend buying it.

A consensus above 70% Buy signals strong conviction among professionals. Not infallible — and many penny stocks have thin or no analyst coverage at all, in which case this simply shows N/A.

71% Buy → 71 of 100 covering analysts recommend buying
Upside (price target)
Analyst target upside

The gap between the average analyst price target and the current price — the potential upside implied by their own valuation models.

Upside above 20% suggests analysts see real room to run. Take it with caution — price targets on thinly-covered penny names can be stale or based on very few analysts.

+28.4% upside → analysts see the stock 28.4% higher within 12 months
Short interest
% of float sold short

The percentage of shares outstanding currently "sold short" — borrowed and sold by investors betting the price will fall.

A short interest below 5% means little bearish pressure. Above 20% means a lot of professional money is betting against it — worth understanding why before buying alongside insiders.

Ready to get these alerts yourself?

Every indicator above is analyzed automatically for each cluster PennySignal detects. You just get the result, with the context to understand it.

See plans — starting at $7.99/month →